Assessments

Brazil

Chile

United States

China

Spain

Russia

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin Goes to China, New U.S. Tariffs on China

U.S.-China Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Sri Lanka

(From left to right) Peter Breuer, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Mission Chief for Sri Lanka, speaks next to Krishna Srinivasan, the Director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, during a press conference in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on May 15, 2023. 

Economics

The IMF will likely approve the next tranche of Sri Lanka's $2.9 billion bailout. But if Colombo fails to reach a deal with its bondholders in the coming months, future disbursements may be at risk.

What's at Stake As Sri Lanka Struggles To Restructure Its Debt

Japan

North Korea

South Korea

Natsumi Sakai (C) of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan poses with others after receiving news that she won the by-election for the Tokyo No. 15 district seat for the lower house, in Tokyo, Japan, on April 28, 2024.

Military & Security

Recent by-elections reveal that a slush fund scandal is continuing to take its toll on Japan's ruling party, but Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is set to remain in power, for now.

By-Election Losses Shake Japan's Ruling Party, but Kishida Stays the Course

Mexico

Energy

Mexico's June 2 presidential election will pit former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum from the ruling Morena party against leading opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez.

2024 Elections: Mexico

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 9, 2024

Media

Iran

Israel

Podcasts

What are each country's defense capabilities?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Israel-Iran Relations

South Africa

The skyline of Johannesburg, South Africa, is seen on April 19, 2023.

The government that emerges from the May 29 election will probably fail to address the structural factors holding back South Africa's economy, but a financial crisis remains unlikely for now.

Assessing South Africa's Post-Election Economic Outlook

Snapshots

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro participates in a march for International Workers Day in Bogota, Colombia, on May 1, 2024. 

The ongoing scandals and growing public dissatisfaction with the government will prolong political volatility and policy uncertainty in Colombia, while increasing the risk of social unrest.

What Another Corruption Scandal Means for Colombia's Fragile Government

Social Issues

For the first time in a U.S. presidential election, Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) policy will become a prominent point of contention between the two candidates and their parties. 

The Impact of the U.S. Presidential Election on Corporate ESG Programs

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov on Dec. 15, 2023, in in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.

Democratic backsliding will likely complicate government efforts to attract Western investment, but could portend improved relations with neighbors and Russia and China.

Gauging the Implications of Kyrgyzstan's Democratic Backsliding

Palestinian Territories

A picture taken on May 6, 2024, shows smoke billowing following a bombardment east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

If Hamas doesn't agree to a more favorable cease-fire deal, Israel will likely expand its push into Gaza's southernmost city at the risk of exacerbating domestic and international blowback.

With the Capture of a Border Crossing, Israel's Rafah Operation Has Begun

Latest

Australia

Solomon Islands

The Solomon Islands' newly elected prime minister Jeremiah Manele speaks during a press conference in Honiara on May 2, 2024.

The leadership change will maintain the strategic Pacific Island nation's new pro-Beijing bent, driving the U.S. and Australia to scale up their own influence campaigns.

The Solomon Islands Elects Another Pro-China Prime Minister

Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov visits the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier on May 13, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. Belousov was named defense minister on May 12. 

The move to replace former Defense Minister Shoigu with a trusted economist signals an intent to better align Russia's military-industrial complex with the government's broader economic strategy.

Putin Taps an Economist To Head Russia's Defense Ministry

PSC candidate Salvador Illa waves following Catalonia's regional elections May 12 in the Spanish city of Barcelona. While the result of Catalonia's regional election reduces the risk of another push for independence in the short to medium term, it also increases uncertainty regarding the stability of the Spanish central government and its ability to pass legislation.

While the result of Catalonia's regional election reduces the risk of another push for independence in the short to medium term, it also increases uncertainty regarding the stability of the Spanish central government and its ability to pass legislation.

A Socialist Win in Catalonia Reflects a Diminished Separatist Drive

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (left), surrounded by their respective delegations, hold a meeting in Beijing, China, on Oct. 18, 2023. 

The Russian president will likely push for greater trade, military and energy cooperation, but a breakthrough is unlikely unless it happens on China's terms.

What To Expect During Putin's Trip to China

United Kingdom

Ballots are counted during local elections in Thornaby, England, on May 3, 2024. 

The outcome of the votes in England and Wales confirms the ruling Conservative Party will likely perform poorly in the general election, but also that the opposition Labour Party will face competition from smaller parties.

What To Make of the Local U.K. Election Results

Europe

France

Serbia

Hungary

Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen between the Chinese and French national flags in Beijing on Jan. 9, 2018. 

During the rare visit, the Chinese president will seek to ease EU trade tensions and secure Beijing's economic presence and influence in Central and Eastern Europe.

What To Expect During Xi's Trip to Europe

Haiti

A Haitian police officer controls the area around the country's National Palace in Port-au-Prince on May 1, 2024.

The reversal in the transitional council's appointment of a new prime minister highlights political tensions within the governing body, indicating risks of further political instability and violence in the coming months.

Disputes Over a Prime Minister Appointment Bode Ill for Haiti's Stability

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) reservoirs are seen at the Yamal LNG plant in the port of Sabetta, located on the Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia, Russia.

The restrictions would further complicate Russia's efforts to increase LNG production, while having only a limited impact on the EU's natural gas supplies.

The Implications of the EU's Proposed Sanctions on Russian LNG

Morocco

Moroccan Air Force mechanics examine an F-16 fighter jet at an airbase in Ben Guerir, about 58 kilometers north of Marrakesh, Morocco, on June 14, 2021. 

Pressure from its pro-Palestinian population will not deter Morocco from using Israeli technology to expand its domestic weapons capabilities, as Rabat seeks to catch up to Algeria’s military power and position itself as an arms exporter.

Despite the Gaza War, Morocco-Israel Defense Ties Look Set to Deepen

Moldova

People hold Moldovan national flags as they gather outside the presidential palace in Chisinau on Dec. 14, 2023, to celebrate the European Council's decision to open accession talks with Moldova.

In the lead-up to the October presidential election and referendum on Moldova's EU integration, Moscow and its Moldovan political allies will step up their efforts to destabilize the country's pro-European government.

In Moldova, Two Key Votes Portend More Pro-Russian Political Agitation

Tit-for-tat military exchanges between Iran and its proxies against Israel will likely continue, with a constant risk of escalation.

Israel Launches Measured Attack on Iran, but Escalation Risks Remain

Columns

On Geopolitics

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Fiji

Indonesia

New Zealand

Philippines

Singapore

Vietnam

India

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

Environment, Science & Technology

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Science & Technology

The European Commission will close investigations under its Foreign Subsidies Regulation into Chinese solar panel manufacturers bidding in a public procurement procedure for the construction of a 110 megawatt solar park in Romania after the companies involved withdrew from the tender, according to a statement from Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton published on May 13.

EU, China: Brussels Closes Anti-Subsidy Probe as Firms Withdraw Bids in Procurement

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai proposed raising tariffs on about $18 billion worth of imports from China under modifications to the existing Sec. 301 tariffs, according to a May 14 statement published by her office.

U.S., China: U.S. Announces Tariffs on $18 Billion Worth of Strategic Goods Imported From China

Voters in 98 constituencies across 10 states and union territories, including key regions like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, and Jammu and Kashmir (specifically the Srinagar constituency), cast their ballots in the fourth phase of India's general election, The Economic Times reported on May 13. 

India: Voters Cast Ballots in Phase Four of General Election

Egypt

Egypt stopped cooperating with Israel to facilitate humanitarian aid inflows to Gaza through the Rafah border crossing, Reuters reported on May 11, citing Egyptian state media.

Egypt: Cairo Stops Humanitarian Aid Cooperation With Israel, Backs South Africa's ICJ Case

China denied Philippine claims that it is undertaking land reclamation to establish a permanent presence at the Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea, the South China Morning Post reported on May 13.

China, Philippines: China Defends Scarborough Shoal Amid Claims of New Land Reclamation

South Africa's ruling African National Congress party, or ANC, is capitalizing on divisions within the opposition uMkhonto weSizwe party, or MK, to expand its campaigning activity in KwaZulu-Natal province, News24 reported on May 12.

South Africa: ANC Capitalizing on MK Party Divisions in Final Weeks of Campaign

Israel ordered the evacuation of more Palestinians from Gaza's southern city of Rafah as Israeli troops slowly moved around the city's outskirts, while others returned to northern Gaza to battle Hamas forces, AP reported on May 12.

Israel, Gaza: Without a Post-War Gaza Strategy, Fighting Spreads North and South

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

Germany

Belgium

Italy

EU member states formally adopted proposals to further reduce carbon dioxide emissions from heavy-duty vehicles and to loosen environmental requirements under the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), two separate press releases from the EU Council show on May 13. 

EU: Member States Approve Stricter Emissions Reduction Targets for Trucks, Looser Environmental Rules for Farmers

Turkey

Turkey's Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek announced a package of savings measures to cut back on public spending, Hurriyet reported on May 13.

Turkey: Government's Spending Spree To Slow After Municipal Elections

Georgia

The Georgian Parliament's legal committee approved the draft 'foreign agents' bill in a third reading amid continued protests, Euronews reported May 13. 

Georgia: Parliament to Pass 'Foreign Agents' Bill in Third Reading Amid Protests

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

The Solomon Islands Elects Another Pro-China Prime Minister

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

EU, China: Brussels Closes Anti-Subsidy Probe as Firms Withdraw Bids in Procurement

U.S., China: U.S. Announces Tariffs on $18 Billion Worth of Strategic Goods Imported From China

India: Voters Cast Ballots in Phase Four of General Election

Egypt: Cairo Stops Humanitarian Aid Cooperation With Israel, Backs South Africa's ICJ Case

China, Philippines: China Defends Scarborough Shoal Amid Claims of New Land Reclamation

South Africa: ANC Capitalizing on MK Party Divisions in Final Weeks of Campaign

Israel, Gaza: Without a Post-War Gaza Strategy, Fighting Spreads North and South

EU: Member States Approve Stricter Emissions Reduction Targets for Trucks, Looser Environmental Rules for Farmers

Turkey: Government's Spending Spree To Slow After Municipal Elections

Georgia: Parliament to Pass 'Foreign Agents' Bill in Third Reading Amid Protests

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